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Introduction to Value Betting: The Theory


In 2021, sports bettors placed wagers worth more than $52 billion. It’s a great way to earn money once you understand the notion of value. It’s is the key to successful, long-term sports betting. But it can be a difficult concept for people to digest. Fret not! We’re here to help.

Through value betting, you can find the odds to give you an ‘edge’ over other odds in the market. It’s a strategy to earn money by using your skills rather than depending on luck.

What are Value Bets?

When we discuss placing value bets, we’re placing a bet at high odds. These odds are higher than the odds prevailing in the market. You look for the expected value, which is a mathematical concept. This expected value is what you’re looking for whenever you place a bet.

Bookmakers and online betting sites present odds that are close to the real probability of a betting market but aren’t exactly the same. They adjust these odds, so they have a profit margin. So, we know that if we somehow know the actual probability of an outcome, and if a bookmaker is offering odds that are higher than the specific probability, the bet would be a value bet.

You beat the probability of the event if you find higher odds, and you make a bet on those odds. Odds are just estimates of event outcomes that bookmakers make. When you know how to calculate the true probability of a market, you can find the profits and beat the bookmakers to make consistent, long-term, and successful bets.

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Value Betting Strategies

Let’s take a brief look at the three main value betting strategies through which you can calculate the true probabilities of any event.

Using Market Odds

Bookmakers can’t get the odds for an event perfectly right. This is how value and arbitrage betting opportunities exist. Asian markets present great opportunities for both. If you know of a bookmaker who always gets the best odds for events, you can use their odds as your base. Then you look for higher odds even though the market has a low overround.

Using an Event’s Analysis

Besides using market odds, you can also use your understanding of a sport or the betting aspect of it to find value betting opportunities. You can find a football team that scores a lot of goals and then do detailed research to find out the probabilities of that team winning. Use everything to determine the true probability.

Betting through a reliable platform like Betting Sites Ranking can help you find the top betting sites for football and other sports like tennis, cricket, hockey, and basketball. You can find profitable betting opportunities and make successful long-term bets.

We also have lists of the top 10 betting sites in the world and the best country for betting on our website, where our team reviews, ranks, and compares multiple betting sites. Visit our website to learn more about how you can bet.

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